Be prepared, not panicked

The economy, H1N1 flu, reduced government and family budgets … the news just keeps getting a little more stressful and a little more urgent as we go into winter. Overarching all of these here in the Green River Valley is the topic of an increased risk of flooding. You have probably read a great deal about why there is an increased risk, what we can do about it, and what we are already doing about it. I just wanted to take a few minutes to add context to potential flooding and what we at the police department are doing.

The Army Corps of Engineers, the agency responsible for maintenance of the Howard Hanson Dam, has warned of an increased risk due to structural problems within the dam. These issues may take a few years to repair. Basically, the dam cannot hold back as much water during heavy winter rain and snow-melting events, which mean more water will flow down the Green River. More water increases the risk of overtopping or breaching existing levees.

The first thing we need to be aware of, in terms of the big picture, is the key phrase from the Corps: “increased” risk. That means increased, not inevitable. I have found that some people are acting as if flooding is a certainty, and like the weather, it is not at all certain. If a specific set of meteorological circumstances line up, yes we could have flooding. It is more likely than it used to be. But it is not inevitable.

Another factor to keep in mind is that much of the information we are getting comes from the corps, King County and local government. I would point out that everyone has incentive to focus on the possibility of flooding rather than the possibility it may stay dry. No one wants to be in a position to hear “I told you so”, and each level of government is trying mightily to balance prudent, reasonable preparation and readiness with a message that does not cause people to overreact.

Finally, we need to understand the significant differences in a possible flood event here compared to what we have seen in other areas of the country. The Red River in Grand Forks, North Dakota flooded several years ago. The topography around that river is as flat as a pancake, and when the waters rose, they flowed for a long distance in each direction. Also, the river there flows north, and upriver it was still frozen from the long winter and precluded the water from draining.

If you look at the aftermath of an incident on a completely different scale in New Orleans, that city is essentially a big bowl and is actually below sea level. Once the levees were breached, the bowl filled up and there was nowhere for the water to go except by pumping it out.

In this area, there are very significant differences. The area of increased risk is essentially a long, relatively narrow valley, and we can expect that any extra water would drain into the Puget Sound, leading to flooding for days, not weeks or months. Infrastructure and communications around the affected area would remain intact. Those are big differences.

We are planning for contingencies such as patrolling areas evacuated for flood risk, helping to guard perimeters of evacuated areas, and working with federal, state, county and adjoining agencies to jointly develop emergency response. Our Emergency Management Manager Dominic Marzano is working very hard to bring all of our emergency services together.

I don’t say any of this to minimize the risk or so that people will reduce their preparation or concern. I only offer it as some context as we move into the wetter winter season. Always being ready for emergencies, including flooding, is the right thing to do all the time in this area. One of the best resources is the “3 Days 3 Ways” Web site at www.3days3ways.org.

Our entire region faces potential earthquakes, floods, and lahars. In other areas of the country, it is tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, wildfires, hurricanes, or tsunamis. Being prepared and making sure your family can get along for several days is just the right thing to do — not just this year.

Have a great week.