I have been spending some time handicapping races recently. First, the Longacres Mile that is coming up at Emerald Downs Aug. 21 and also the paths of a few up and coming south King County politicians.
There are a lot of similarities between handicapping political races and horse races. You have to understand form, fitness and the conditions of the race. Getting into the right race at the right time is the key to winning. Not that I have ever actually bet on a horse race, of course. Well, maybe a few times.
Reagan Dunn’s political rise is one of the more interesting stories in the Republican ranks.
The Republican party in this state is in dire need of some heavy hitters. The party has been replete with utility players that consistently blink at brush-back pitches.
The intriguing handicapping story for me surrounding Dunn is if he wins his bid for attorney general, who winds up with his seat?
The attorney general race is next year with the winner taking office in January 2013. Dunn’s term on the King County Council ends Dec. 31, 2013
King County Council seats are coveted and the jockeying for the hope of hooking Dunn’s seat has already started.
On the Republican side of the ledger there are the easy picks who could potentially vie for his chair. State Sen. Pam Roach, R-Auburn is an easy one, but she may not be in the district anymore. Another potential is state Sen. Cheryl Pflug, R-Maple Valley
Both of these senators are serious contenders, but as a handicapper I am watching a newcomer from Enumclaw.
I like long shots.
Cathy Dahlquist took over Dan Roach’s House seat from the 31st when he moved over to the Pierce County Council.
Dahlquist beat Shawn Bunney, a worthy opponent, and she showed the sand necessary for the real politics of campaigns.
A run for political office at the county, state or federal level is not for the meek. When I hear candidates tell me how much they dislike challengers in a race I understand, but if you’re going to put your sights beyond a school board or book club president, you better find some true grit or take up knitting.
Dahlquist showed she has the stuff in the House Republican caucus this year during session. The Republican caucus is not tea time and she proved she is an up-and-coming fighter. She’s one to watch and I expect her to look closely at Dunn’s seat on the county council.
On a side note, two Republican faces to keep on the chalk board are state Sen. Joe Fain, R-Auburn and Rep. Mark Hargrove, R-Covington.
I don’t expect Fain to chase Dunn’s seat, but this is a young R who will move up the ranks. He has the form for serious handicapping.
Hargrove proved to be a very thoughtful member of the House and a quick study – another interesting new face.
One of my favorite and most reliable political prognosticators tossed out a scenario for filling Dunn’s seat I thought was very interesting. This friend has one of the best political minds I have ever run across and I love spinning race scenes with him.
Here is his handicapping hunch. If Dunn wins the attorney general race, the county council votes to fill the seat.
OK, supposedly the council is nonpartisan, and by the way, to everyone’s shock there is gambling going on at Emerald Downs and Casablanca.
The council has a ruling Democrat majority and my fortune teller’s hunch is they would tap Pat Sullivan, D-Covington, for the seat.
Sullivan is probably the best liked and most respected political leader from either side of any fence.
He was moved up the leadership ladder in the House Democratic caucus this session and his work in the excruciating budget session has been duly noted.
If Sullivan accepts, which is a big question, he would be very difficult to beat. He would have nearly 10 months in office before the Rs could have a shot at him.
Interesting scenario.
In future columns, I have some more potential hunches to handicap including the race for attorney general. There are plenty of angles to figure in that one with King County Councilman Bob Ferguson lining up against Dunn.
If any readers have some scenes you want to spin, send them in and I will try to work them into a column.
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